Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
