Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
